Ipl Qualification Scenario: GT raise IPL 2026 playoff qualification chances to 72.52%, but Rajasthan Royals remain ahead at 80.31% | Cricket News – The Times of India
Gujarat Titans strengthened their IPL 2026 playoff position following a commanding 77-run win over Rajasthan Royals in Jaipur, with projections showing GT’s qualification probability rising after the massive Net Run Rate boost generated by the victory.The latest win now places Gujarat Titans at a 72.52% chance of reaching the playoffs and a 38.71% probability of finishing inside the top two after their biggest-ever IPL win by runs. Shubman Gill’s 84, Sai Sudharsan’s 55 and Rashid Khan’s superb 4/33 powered GT to a dominant victory that lifted them to second place in the standings and pushed their Net Run Rate from -0.147 to +0.228.Rajasthan Royals, meanwhile, remain projected slightly ahead of Gujarat overall despite the defeat, with an 80.31% playoff probability and a 44.07% top-two probability.
That contradiction is largely driven by the remaining schedule. While GT still face Sunrisers Hyderabad, Kolkata Knight Riders and Chennai Super Kings in their final three league matches, Rajasthan’s remaining fixtures come against Delhi Capitals, Lucknow Super Giants and Mumbai Indians – all teams currently outside the top seven and carrying significantly weaker playoff projections.
IPL 2026 Playoff Probabilities
| Team | Playoff Probability | Top-Two Probability | Average Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| SRH | 89.59% | 60.22% | 2.64 |
| PBKS | 84.81% | 53.25% | 2.65 |
| RR | 80.31% | 44.07% | 3.54 |
| RCB | 77.55% | 41.98% | 3.08 |
| GT | 72.52% | 38.71% | 4.25 |
| CSK | 38.81% | 12.62% | 5.45 |
| KKR | 5.23% | 0.06% | 7.11 |
| MI | 1.50% | 0.01% | 8.46 |
| LSG | 1.56% | 0.00% | 8.72 |
| DC | 0.00% | 0.00% | 9.08 |
The result also produced smaller shifts across the wider playoff race. Punjab Kings strengthened marginally to 84.81%, while Sunrisers Hyderabad remained the strongest playoff favourites at 89.59%.Royal Challengers Bengaluru held steady at 77.55%, with their massive +1.234 Net Run Rate continuing to provide one of the strongest safety cushions in the league despite recent inconsistency.Chennai Super Kings suffered a slight projection drop after GT’s win because one direct rival effectively moved further ahead in the standings, leaving CSK at 38.81%.Kolkata Knight Riders remain distant outsiders at just 5.23%, while Mumbai Indians and Lucknow Super Giants continue to hover around the 1.5% mark, realistically requiring near-perfect finishes combined with multiple collapses elsewhere.Delhi Capitals, meanwhile, failed to qualify in any of the latest 100,000 projected simulations despite still remaining mathematically alive on paper.
Remaining IPL 2026 Fixtures: Predicted Winners
| Match | Fixture | Projected Favourite |
|---|---|---|
| Match 53 | CSK vs LSG | CSK |
| Match 54 | RCB vs MI | RCB |
| Match 55 | PBKS vs DC | PBKS |
| Match 56 | GT vs SRH | GT (very close) |
| Match 57 | RCB vs KKR | RCB |
| Match 58 | PBKS vs MI | PBKS |
| Match 59 | LSG vs CSK | CSK (very close) |
| Match 60 | KKR vs GT | GT |
| Match 61 | PBKS vs RCB | PBKS (very close) |
| Match 62 | DC vs RR | RR |
| Match 63 | CSK vs SRH | SRH |
| Match 64 | RR vs LSG | RR |
| Match 65 | KKR vs MI | KKR |
| Match 66 | GT vs CSK | GT |
| Match 67 | SRH vs RCB | SRH |
| Match 68 | LSG vs PBKS | PBKS |
| Match 69 | MI vs RR | RR |
The projections were generated using a simulation model that replayed the remaining IPL 2026 league stage 100,000 times using current points, Net Run Rate, recent form, remaining fixtures and weighted match-win probabilities.
